著作: 近藤 明子/[近藤 光男]/一楽 一成/[渡辺 公次郎]/MIGRATION MODEL BASED ON UTILITY THEORY TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION OF DEGREE OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REGIONS AND ITS APPLICATION/Proceedings of 9th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management
(英) MIGRATION MODEL BASED ON UTILITY THEORY TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION OF DEGREE OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REGIONS AND ITS APPLICATION
(英) It is well known that the population in Japan will start to decrease suddenly after its peak in 2006. In the present day, many rural regions have difficulties to keep their communities because of rapid aging as well as decrease in population. In order to cope with this problem, countermeasures are discussed to reduce the decrease in population and keep such regions lively. In this study, we aim to derive a migration model based on the utility theory in which the degree of relationship between regions is considered in order to contribute to creating such countermeasures. We also aim to construct a highly accurate migration model, because the model is used for simulation analysis. The migration model was built on the basis of regional difference in utility. The function measuring degree of relationship between regions is incorporated into the model in this study. The model is applied to Tokushima Prefecture which is one of the typical rural regions in Japan and has serious problems related to decrease in population. Variables representing not only geographical, historical and natural relationship between regions but also the amount of average income, land price, and the level of quality of the environment are introduced into the model. The model was estimated using regression analysis, and satisfactory results were obtained. Introduction of the degree of relationship between regions into the model affected improving accuracy of the model considerably. In extensive analysis using the model, a dummy variable explaining the psychological factor in migration was introduced, and it was proved that this variable contributes to improve the model in theory and practice. As a result, an operational migration model suitable for simulation analysis was successfully developed.
|発行所||推奨||(英) Center for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College of London|
(英) Proceedings of 9th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management
|年月日||必須||2005年 6月 30日|